I got interested in this topic, after reading about Time Cycles from Murphy's book. Time cycle seems pretty much Fourier series analysis. Just to try it out, I took the monthly data for EURUSD for its entirety. First, this is the monthly EURUSD chart (x-axis is just data points). I take a Fourier Transform of this data, select the low-frequency components, and then Inverse Fourier Transform, to give this graph (red graph is the standard EURUSD Monthly data). The blue curve is showing an interesting cyclic pattern. It seems set to repeat a bullish wave. To make it cleaner, I pass the EURUSD monthly data through a Low-pass filter, set at cutoff frequency of 0.05 units (which is around 5 times the frequency step size), and then I get this graph. We are clearly seeing initiation of a bull run again. I was wondering if professionals consider this a reliable analysis of FX markets? All other forces of the market (ECB, Fed, rates, trade agreements/wars, Futures), they are perhaps unwittingly playing their part in helping this cycle evolve naturally? Or is this just a fluke?
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The main Forex markets, in the order of their opening times, are: Sydney, Tokyo, Frankfurt, London and New York. On the chart below, you can see the hourly course of the Forex-trading day. Note: Tokyo's market doesn't start in the proper time zone due to the fact that it opens 1 hour Forex Market Time. Forex market is a 24 hours market around the clock. But for all currency pairs, volatility does not stay equal. It varies time to time for different sessions. Forex Sessions are basically stock exchange time across the globe. When stock market opens major transaction happens. The Forex Market Hours tools shows the opening and closing times of Asian, European and North American FX trading sessions. Also, this tool provides statistics for each currency pair for the last 24 hours, including trade volume, maximum volatility and average spreads. Data is based on information provided by Swiss FX Marketplace. The optimal time to trade the forex (foreign exchange) market is when it's at its most active levels—that's when trading spreads (the differences between bid prices and the ask prices) tend to narrow. In these situations, less money goes to the market makers facilitating currency trades, leaving more money for the traders to pocket personally. Forex Market Hours Based Strategy No# 2: Breakout Trading at London Opening Hours. The London session is responsible for around 30% of the trading volume, which is the highest among all major Forex market sessions around the world. Hence, often major trends start and end during the London Forex market hours.
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